One constant factor in the Atlantic Canadian startup story in the past decade has been a strong underlying economy in key export markets – but that could change soon.

Robust economic growth, especially in the U.S., has provided primed markets for these innovation companies. But recessions inevitably come – it’s a matter of when, not if. Here are a few thoughts on what the looming downturn will mean for East Coast startups:

1. Founders will love Keynes – A little-known component of the Harper government’s economic action plan in 2008-09 was a substantial funding increase in the National Research Council’s Industry Research Assistance Program, or IRAP. It will happen again.

IRAP is excellent Keynesian spending – money that can be productively distributed quickly, often to the benefit of young people.  Other startup programs will probably be boosted as well. In the last decade, all governments have boarded the innovation bandwagon and will see startups as an efficient way to spark spending.

2. Our best companies will feel the most pain – Atlantic Canada has produced some great scaling companies – generally those with $2 million-plus in revenue, doubling sales annually. They sell mainly to private sector businesses or consumers, and the next recession could be brutal for them.

These companies are too big to receive meaningful help from government programs. Those raising capital will find it a lot harder to entice angels or venture capital funds in a downturn. Those that have already raised large sums will feel pressure from the VCs to cut costs (read: lay people off) so their funding will last through the downturn.

3. There could be a talent glut – Founders are now coping with a tight, tight market for developers – tighter in some cities than others. That could change dramatically in a recession.

Fortune 500 companies could adopt hiring freezes really quickly, and some may lay off developers, maybe in big numbers. Developers could suddenly be easier to find.

What’s more, coders, engineers and scientists coming out of universities will face a pretty bleak job market and many will choose to start a business rather than hunt for a job. They will stoke the startup furnace.

4. Our young entrepreneurs are about to get schooled – I would bet the median age of founders in Atlantic Canada is about 30. That means that roughly half the founders would have been no more than 20 during the last recession, likely still in university.

They’re about to go through their first recession as business people, and it will be a real education – and a healthy education. One of the key lessons in personal finance and business is learning how to manage recessions.

5. No one is planning for the recession – I haven’t heard founders talking about a coming recession, but they should planning for tougher markets. How?

Raise now. Burn slow. Sell to government.

The smart companies are trying to raise capital now and planning to spend it slowly so it lasts a few years. And if possible, they should be looking for public sector customers. The federal government’s Build In Canada Innovation Program (which purchases new-fangled goods from Canadian startups) will be extremely popular in a year or two.