In launching their new casual gaming analytics tool dystillr, two Karma Gaming execs have used the technology to unveil some troubling trends at the world’s largest social gaming company, Zynga Inc.
Jay Aird and Duncan Gillis have posted a report on the new company’s website titled “Volatility in Zynga’s Core Genre”, which points out the San Francisco-based gaming giant is suffering from its dependence on the declining simulation game market, which has declined 53 percent in just under three years.
Aird got together with Paul LeBlanc in 2011 to form Karma Gaming, a company that produces online games for regulated lotteries. The first thing they needed to do was to analyse what casual games –those played on Facebook – were out there, but no tool existed to conduct the analysis. So Aird, LeBlanc and Karma’s analytics specialist Gillis developed their own tool, then realized that it has a huge commercial application. They’ve now launched dystillr as a separate sister company to Karma focused solely on social game monitoring and analytics.
“Casual Gaming is the fastest growing form of mass media of all time,” said Aird in an interview. “It’s critically important for the investment community to understand, and for the market to understand, what’s happening in this segment.”
Dystillr provides developers, researchers and analysts with an unparalleled view of the entire Facebook app ecosystem. The system analyses number of users playing a game, how often and how long they play it and which segments of the markets are rising and falling in terms of usage. Users can customize the program so dystillr analyses particular segments or features of the market.
For example, its analysis of Zynga shows the company has a 58 percent market share in simulation-type games. But in the last 21 months, simulation games’ share of Facebook game users has plummeted from 64% to 29%.
Aird and Gillis used dystillr to analyse FarmVille 2, the latest Zynga game and a follow-up to its iconic hit FarmVille, the most recognized simulation game. The analysis shows that FarmVille 2 has attracted 6.8 million daily active users in the first 30 days, a similar position attained by other notable Zynga releases after 30 days such as The Ville and current No. 1 ranking game ChefVille.
Aird said the big question is whether the new game will continue on a growth trajectory or whether users are fatigued by the ‘Ville’ franchise, as suggested by the decline of the simulation genre.
Dystillr also uncovered a ray of hope for Zynga because it commands a 60% market share in gambling- and casino-type games on Facebook and claims three of the top five spots in the segment. The reason that’s important is gambling and casino is the fastest growing segment of the social gaming market, increasing by 96% percent in the past 12 months.
Aird, who is the CIO at Karma Gaming, said he and Gillis built dystillr themselves without needing capital. The new company is focused on gaining traction rather than raising capital and is incubating alongside Karma at the Halifax-based Extreme Group.
