A few weeks ago, J. P. Morgan & Co. put out a research note downplaying the impact that either presidential candidate would have on the investment world. For one thing, said the report, the winner of the election would probably have to cope with a global recession in his or her first term.

A recession within four years. The thought of it sparked a single question for me: What would a recession mean for the fledgling startups in Atlantic Canada?

The prospect seemed a bit jarring, as most of the economic discussion these days focuses on the challenges of a slow-growth economy. But there has been a downturn in the middle or later years of each decade since the 1970s in the U.S. (It escaped recession in the late 1990s but there were the Asian and Russian crises, and the dotcom crash.) And there are less than three years and two months left in this decade.

It’s impossible to say what a global recession would mean for the Atlantic Canadian companies that are commercializing innovation. If a recession does happen, there’s no telling how severe it would be, the duration, what sectors would be pounded the hardest. But we can make a few suppositions and one harsh observation.

The observation is that no one — certainly no one I’ve spoken to — is factoring a recession into their planning. The East Coast startup community is a hotbed of optimism and bold ambition, much of it justified given its performance in recent years. The number of startups, according to our surveys, increased 29 per cent in 2015. Revenues rose 66 per cent, led by the galloping gains among the larger companies, those with more than $2 million in revenue.

But the fact that Atlantic Canada is now home to more than 30 of these larger companies makes the sector all the more vulnerable to the impact of a recession.

First of all, many of these companies are raising capital, rounds of $5 million or more from investors in Toronto or the U.S. If the economy hits a turbulent patch, venture capital will be one of the first segments to shut down. That could mean some of the region’s most successful companies will suffer a cash crunch and have to sell out prematurely or scale back.

Even those that have already raised capital outside the region will receive strong pressure from investors to cut costs immediately to preserve their money. If companies decide to cut back on development teams rather than their sales force, we could run the risk of talented programmers being forced to leave the region.

And in many cases, the revenue growth will come crashing to a halt and sales could fall. A lot of companies would probably fail.

I promised myself last Tuesday (election night) to never make predictions again because I was dead wrong about the U.S. election. So this is not a prediction of impending doom. It’s simply a note that companies should factor an economic crisis into their planning. And I say companies rather than government agencies because many of these companies are getting too large to use existing government programs to avoid a crisis.